🔗 Share this article

It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.