A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
